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WKSU, our public radio partners in Ohio and across the region and NPR are all continuing to work on stories on the latest developments with the coronavirus and COVID-19 so that we can keep you informed.

Ohio Math Expert Model Shows COVID-19 Cases Could Rise After Restrictions End

Photo of Social Distancing Sticker
Andrew Meyer
Ohio's health orders for public locations, such as the one pictured here, will be removed June 2. Case Western Reserve University Professor Daniela Calvetti says that is worrisome.

Ohio’s recent decision to end mask mandates and distancing restrictionscould be a dangerous one, according to a Case Western Reserve University mathematician.

Professor Daniela Calvetti warns that despite more Ohioans getting their second dose of the COVID vaccine, there are still plenty of unvaccinated people who risk spreading COVID-19. She’s created a model that tracks cases week-to-week as vaccination numbers increase. She says most of those tracked by the model should have the least chance of viral transmission as a result of vaccination, while people who don't appear in the model have the highest chance of transmission.

Calvetti: how the virus will continue to spread

“Most of the time we expect that 90 percent of people reported will stay out of circulation. They will not continue spreading the infection. It’s going to be spread by people who are not sick,” Calvetti said.

Nearly 43 percent of Ohioans have received at least their first shot, according to the Ohio Department of Health’s COVID-19 Vaccination Dashboard.

Ohio’s health orders will be coming to an end June 2. Officials are continuing to stress caution for unvaccinated people in public places.

Mason Lawlor is a senior studying journalism at Kent State University, with a minor in entrepreneurship. He has been a reporter for The Kent Stater for three semesters covering sports and the city of Kent.