Democrats have been waiting decades for a chance to steal the 16th congressional district from the Republican grasp. And 2008 could be their big chance.
Dave Cohen is a political scientist at the University of Akron.
COHEN: The conditions in the country are favoring the Democratic Party across the country, so it really makes it truly a tossup district.
This is an area that leans Republican, but is becoming more competitive for Democrats.
And, this is a region hurt hard by the closing of the Hoover plant and foreclosures. Polls suggest the race is close, in part because Republicans are at a disadvantage nearly everywhere this year. I took a drive down to Wayne County to get a sense of the race.
STAND UP: I'm standing outside the Smucker's store in Orrville, because you can't really go to Orville without stopping at Smucker's. And, I'm here to go door-to-door with Kirk Schuring who's running for Congress as Republican. And, as I drove out here I was really struck by how much of a bellwether this area really is. You see almost as many Obama-Biden signs as McCain signs on people's lawns.
On a chilly Saturday, fifty-six year old Schuring is wearing a jacket borrowed from a staffer. He's walking around a well-kept middle class subdivision near downtown Orrville. This is true retail politics. He knocks on the door of Karen O'Hare, who echoes the priorities of many here.
O'HARE: Obviously, the economy is a big issue. I'm a middle school principal so obviously education is another important aspect when I'm looking at candidates.
She's already on board.
O'HARE: : You have my support on election day.
SCHURING: If you can tell your neighbors the same, I'd appreciate it.
O'HARE: I will. You know, I'm surprised more of my neighbors don't have signs up yet.
Across the street, Mike Musyt's lawn has a sign up: for Obama. It catches Schuring's eye and he figures, why not. He's just a few points behind Boccieri in the polls.
SCHURING: We noticed you have an Obama sign, but we'd like to talk to you.
MUSYT: Talk to me about healthcare. Where are you with healthcare?
SCHURING: I'm for a free-market model, but my model is different from John McCain's or anybody else's for that matter. I'm for insuring every American, because I think if we do that, we save tax dollars and we save health insurance dollars because when the economically disadvantaged go to the hospital...it costs all of us.
Schuring knows insurance-he was an insurance agent before serving in the Ohio Legislature. He doesn't sway Musyt, but at least earns his respect.
MUSYT: I've enjoyed talking with you.
SCHURING: I would appreciate your vote.
MUSYT: I understand. You know where I am.
Thirty minutes away, Democrat John Boccieri is talking with his supporters at the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union in Canton.
Boccieri looks younger than his 39 years. You could be forgiven if, at first glance, you assumed Boccieri is the Republican in this race. He's clean-cut, and carries himself with a military bearing...having served 14 years in the Air Force. Echoing Obama, he strikes a bipartisan chord.
BOCCIERI: I wouldn't categorize myself as a conservative or a liberal. I'm an American. I take each issue independently and make my best assessment of where the district needs to go and where my personal and character would lead us to go.
Cohen from the University of Akron says both candidates take that attitude, which makes it particularly hard to predict what will happen on Election Day.
COHEN: Neither one of these men is what you'd call an extremist by any stretch of the imagination. And the 16th district is not a district where you have a lot of voters on the ends of the political spectrum. On many of their issues, the differences are small compared to some of the races across the country.
Both men are pro-life, for instance. But they do try to separate themselves on the economy. Boccieri, the Democrat, has taken to criticizing Schuring for not focusing on the middle class. Schuring has attacked Boccieri for only recently moving into the district from a neighboring community. In a recent debate in Medina, Schuring seized on a Boccieri comment about I-90 in Cleveland.
BOCCIERI: We have a bridge on route 90 that's about to fall apart. We can barely have enough traffic over it to mitigate some of the traffic congestion over 90 east.
SCHURING: Senator Boccieri, God bless you, but Route 90 is not in this district and I don't much care about it. I'm going to fight first for the transportation system in this district.
BOCCIERI: You have to care about all of Ohio, Senator Schuring.
Democrats have their sights on all of Ohio too. Besides being a major battleground in the Presidential race, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pouring a lot of money into running anti-Schuring ads, hoping to capitalize on this year's anti-Republican momentum. If Boccieri wins, it probably won’t be because of any Obama coat-tails in Ohio. Obama is competitive, but less so in this moderately conservative district.
Meanwhile, Schuring is hoping voters here will vote Republican once again—just as they have for the last 60 years.