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Evaluating the Polls

Most news organizations in Ohio were ready to call the Governor's race for Ted Strickland sometime in September. The Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati said the Democrat had a 12-point lead over Ken Blackwell in early October. Survey USA gave Strickland a 22-point lead about the same time. By October 18, a poll by Quinnipiac University found that Strickland was up by 27 percentage points. On election day, Strickland won by 17.

Politicos in much of the country were watching the Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Mike DeWine. SurveyUSA, which WKYC uses, tracked the incumbent Republican's approval ratings going back over a year. DeWine remained on the positive side of the ledger until February of this year when, coincidentally, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney held fundraisers for him. DeWine rebounded until his disapprovals ratings began climbing in June and never stopped. The Bliss Institute in early October said Brown and DeWine were virtually even. But other polls showed Brown gaining momentum every week thereafter. In the final week, Zogby had them two points apart, Polymetrix of California had them 18% apart. In the end, the Ohio Poll was closest, projecting Sherrod Brown to get 55.7% of the vote. He actually won 55.9%. Mark Urycki, 90.3.