Akron may not get its first female mayor after last month's election. But it was women who overwhelmingly picked the winner.
New post-election polling data shows that women made up a staggering 65% of the diverse coalition that backed Shammas Malik in the May 2 Democratic primary. The first-term councilman and now presumptive next mayor collected 68% more votes than the next closest candidate in the seven-way Democratic primary.
But, according to survey responses and the official results of the election, Malik would have won even without a single male vote. An estimated 5,994 women voted for Malik, compared to 4,995 men and women combined who voted for his closest opponent, Marco Sommerville.
“That surprised me. I was not prepared for that,” said political scientist John Green, who analyzed the new poll of 500 registered voters commissioned by several local organizations and conducted by the Center for Marketing and Opinion Research. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. Not all respondents voted May 2.
“We do know that women tend to be the heart of the progressive voting bloc,” said Green, who was particularly impressed that Malik did better with women than fellow Councilwoman Tara Mosley — the only woman in the race. “… [I]t's not unreasonable to think that one of the reasons Malik did so well was that he mobilized people who liked his progressive message.”
Green — with input from media partners at Ideastream Public Media and the Akron Beacon Journal — designed the post-election survey to understand why 19,571 Akronites voted as they did last month and how the city’s 120,329 registered voters feel about a whole host of issues, from police reform and recent protests to whether they’ll support Malik as he prepares to deliver on his promise of change.
In responses to multiple open-ended questions, a few voters — particularly conservatives and voters who didn’t vote — said Akron is going downhill regardless of who runs it.
Several voters said they’re happy to see an end to the current administration, which some linked to Sommerville in an election that was all about change.
A few voters remain concerned that Malik has no administrative experience in the public or private sector. But solid majorities are expressing hope and optimism in his leadership.
“The citizens of this community sent a strong message that we need and are ready for a change,” one voter said.
“Shammas Malik will be an excellent mayor and it was important that everyone towards the end threw their votes towards him to make sure Sommerville was not elected,” another said. “So, very satisfied. ”
Their candidates lost, and they’re still happy
Several voters who didn’t support Malik are ready to get behind their next mayor.
“Shammas Malik was not my first choice for mayor, but I believe he is a strong candidate with a lot of potential to positively impact the city,” one voter said. “His values and clear vision for the future of the city align closely with my own hopes, and I am optimistic that he will bring fresh ideas to office that may fix major issues and better our community overall.”
“Though he was not my first choice for mayor, I still like and support the winning candidate,” another voter said. “I believe he is competent and cares deeply about the city, and his past statements and campaign promises demonstrate that he shares a lot of the same values as me and supports causes I find important.”
While 52% of the surveyed voters said the city is on the wrong track, 60% said Malik is somewhat or very likely to address their top concern, to put Akron back on the right track, to significantly change how the city operates and to give people a greater voice in government.
And 59% believe Malik will bring people together.
“Even people who didn’t vote for the winner seem fairly satisfied,” Green said.
The data suggest that 70% of Sommerville voters think Malik will put Akron on the right track. And a strong 63% of Sommerville supporters think Malik will bring people together.
With about 16% of the city's more than 120,000 registered voters participating in last month's primary, 74% of all poll respondents — voters and non-voters — said they’re somewhat or very satisfied with the outcome.
“There were a lot of people in Akron, particularly the people who were most engaged in politics, who were ready for change,” explained Green, a professor emeritus and former director at the University of Akron Bliss Institute of Applied Politics. “And the change comes as a package of changes: the first non-white mayor, a young mayor, someone with a different approach, somebody who's talked a lot about vision and inclusion and a lot of emphasis on process, you know, we're going to do things differently.”
In determining who should get their ballots, voters said campaigns and candidate debates or forums were important 83% of the time. The grand jury decision in the Jayland Walker case wasn’t as important to helping voters make up their minds as what the candidates said about the decision. And only citizen protests and endorsements meant less to voters than media coverage.
Ready to help and hold the next administration accountable
About 90% of respondents stand ready to watch the next mayor and publicly express their disapproval or support on his policies if necessary. Roughly 70% of these residents, who are more engaged than others because they’re registered to vote, said they’re committed to holding their new mayor accountable, with 87% saying they’d join a community organization that monitors city policies.
But building a better tomorrow for Akron, as Mayor Dan Horrigan and the two police chiefs during his tenure have repeated, will take more than city workers to accomplish. Residents will have to roll up their sleeves and own the city’s problems and solutions.
Green said the polling data suggests that the people appear “by and large” up to the task with 86% of saying it’s important to attend public meetings and volunteer to help implement city programs.
And a solid three-quarters of respondents — including large chunks of voters who did not support Malik — said it's important for citizens to peacefully protest when community needs are not met.
How Akron’s next mayor built a diverse coalition of voters
This survey is the last in a series of three. The first measured opinions across all of Akron, not just its voting population. The second focused on those likely to vote in the May 2 election.
That second survey, conducted about a month before the election, had a big blind spot with a third of respondents still undecided. But it tracked the ultimate order of the top candidates, who all polled within the margin of error ahead of the election. It also showed Malik doing well with older and white residents but struggling with younger and Black voters.
As Malik turned up the intensity of his weekend door-knocking campaigns in the last two months of the election, undecided voters became Malik voters, the women who expressed stronger support for Councilwoman Tara Mosley flipped for Malik and the city’s Black residents, who appeared to be guaranteed votes for Sommerville, gave Malik nearly as much of their support.
This is how Malik pulled away from the competition with a diverse coalition.
A month out, no candidate had anywhere near a majority of support from any type of voter, regardless of race, gender, income, education or age.
Yet, in a race that saw 19,527 votes divided among seven candidates, the final survey suggests Malik won 53% of the female vote, 52% of the 45-64 age group and 58% of minority voters who are not Black. Capturing 43% of the overall vote, Malik also over-indexed with 48% of homeowners, 48% of Democrats and 45% of moderates, high income earners and seniors.
Sommerville, who got just 26% of the overall vote, collected 44% of the vote from people who make less than $25,000 a year. Even in this category, though, Malik wasn’t far behind with 39%.
And Malik earned 33% of the Black vote compared to 34% for Sommerville. (The other 33% of Black voters split their ballots among the remaining five candidates, with most supporting Mosley.)
About the poll
The Akron Decides Post-Election Survey of 500 voters, conducted by the Center for Marketing and Opinion Research, was commissioned by the Akron Press Club, Bliss Institute at the University of Akron, Akron NAACP, Ohio Debate Commission and Akron Beacon Journal.
The poll had a margin of error of 4.4%.
Registered voters were surveyed May 4 through May 17 online and over the phone, including landlines and cellphones.
Reach reporter Doug Livingston at dlivingston@thebeaconjournal.com or 330-996-3792.