STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
OK. First, I'm hungry. But second, what's really going on here? We've called up Glynn Tonsor, who is a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, and he also created and oversees what is called the Meat Demand Monitor project at K-State. Mr. Tonsor, good morning.
GLYNN TONSOR: Hi. Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: I don't know if you've had breakfast yet, or if you ever have hamburger for breakfast. I mean...
TONSOR: There will be meat in it when I do.
INSKEEP: That's good. I'm glad to hear that. I'm glad to hear that. OK. So I just heard a lot of contradictory signals. It was a little hard to figure out the narrative. It doesn't seem so simple that meat production has suddenly dropped, and prices have suddenly gone up. What does the Meat Demand Monitor tell you is actually happening?
TONSOR: Yeah. The Meat Demand Monitor is a pulse on domestic consumption and why we buy or don't buy what we do here in the U.S. And to put a bow on it is meat demand, and even more narrowly beef demand, has been very good last couple years. The public wants beef, and they're willing to pay more for it than we used to think they are. Key to that, I believe, Steve, is taste. So taste leads the protein-purchasing decision for U.S. residents. And over time, the beef industry's made notable improvements in beef quality that aligns with consumer eating experience and taste, and they're paying for it willingly.
INSKEEP: Wait a minute. It just - it tastes better. They've upgraded the product, and so we're just - we're paying more, and we're fine with that, is what you're saying?
TONSOR: Yes. And the other thing that I would impose on this particular situation is, we're producing a little less beef than last year, but by historic standards, we're still producing a lot of beef. We're just doing it with fewer cows. So there's a efficiency story in the industry as well, is we get more beef per animal in the system, and that's a great thing to talk about. But I think the key thing that's being overlooked in most of this discussion is strong beef demand is pulling up prices, and the public simply wants more of that high-quality beef.
INSKEEP: OK. So if that is the case, what do you think about when you hear the president say it's time to import more beef from Argentina to deal with the high prices?
TONSOR: So I would reiterate what Dr. Anderson before me - you know, his quote was, we're already importing large volumes consistent with the public trying to consume more beef. That's already occurring. And on balance, the volume that's available from Argentina, the probable duration of that and how their domestic policies may or may not evolve, and possible adjustments by other sources all tell me on balance the likely effect of that announcement is pretty small on our markets.
INSKEEP: When we hear from cattle ranchers and so forth - I mean, I don't want to speak for all of them, but we get a sense that people are saying, wait a minute. What are you doing here? Why are you going to Argentina? I don't really understand this. Do you feel you understand what the purpose is?
TONSOR: No. But I'm not sure I should. I'm an analyst just, like, looking at the market. I think the countryside concern would be some inconsistencies. So this latest announcement is - regardless of what one thinks about imports and the role in our economy and society, it's a little inconsistent with other announcements in recent months, and I think the countryside is frustrated by that.
INSKEEP: Oh, you mean about - yeah, about reshoring and tariffs and everything else. That's the inconsistency?
TONSOR: Yes. And, you know, I'm not taking a personal stand on that, but I think the countryside is maybe confused or frustrated with the inconsistency.
INSKEEP: Do you think it is necessary for us to have imported sources of beef as well as domestic sources to keep the market balanced?
TONSOR: To sustain the volumes we've had historically? Yes. And it's really important to remember we import largely beef to support our ground beef consumption. So not all beef is equal. Ribeye steaks is different than ground beef, and, you know, I won't geek out too much for your listeners. But it's not new that we import large volumes. We're just doing it even more in recent years, in part because of that consumer poll factor.
INSKEEP: And I want to ask also about the consumer here. I mean, the supposed driver of this is people who are concerned about prices. And let's be real - I mean, people are really concerned about the price of groceries and have been for several years. And inflation has calmed down, but the prices are still high compared to five years ago. Is there something that producers can do about that?
TONSOR: I would argue they have been in the sense that their efficiency gains are real. So we're producing more beef per cow than ever before, and that results in lower cost than we would have without those efficiency gains. So the industry is doing that, right? So breeding success, feeding success, lots of those things within the industry aren't new and they continue, and that's the effort by the industry to do that. But important for our discussion, Steve, is they're also doing it while improving things like the cattle quality that improves beef quality.
INSKEEP: If the president called you up and asked you for advice about something to say, something to do, and you had one sentence with him, what's the sentence?
TONSOR: My one sentence would be is the market appears to be working. The public wants more beef, and I think we're going to produce that in the years ahead.
INSKEEP: Agriculture economist Glynn Tonsor teaches at Kansas State University. Hope you do have a hearty breakfast, sir. Thanks so much.
TONSOR: Thank you, Steve.
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