SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
We turn now to Firas Maksad, who is managing director for the Middle East in North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy firm. He joins us now. Thanks so much for being with us, sir.
FIRAS MAKSAD: Pleasure to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: Massive gifts and investments - as Franco Ordoñez just recounted for us - were announced out of this trip. Trillions of dollars, all told. What stood out for you?
MAKSAD: Yeah. I mean, I'm dubbing this very much the trillion-dollar tour for Trump. I would say that clearly those countries - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE - know how to grab Trump's attention and cultivate his friendship. After all, he is the president of the most powerful country in the world, and these countries very much rely on the United States for the security umbrella in the region, particularly when it comes to Iran. So not surprised by the pomp and circumstance that surrounded the visit.
The question, obviously, of course, is how much of these promised trillions will materialize? I suspect in the coming years that those investments that do not serve a financial purpose, do not have a return on investment, will probably fall to the wayside. I think these countries very much understand right now President Trump very much enjoys the big headlines and the positive news, and that's how they cultivate him. It's also part of the reason, Scott, why the president choose to keep Israel off his itinerary. No positive news there. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is simply, it seems, incapable of delivering a ceasefire in Gaza - one that President Trump very much wanted. And so that's why Israel, this time - America's closest ally - was just not on the travel list.
SIMON: President Trump indicated, as far as he was concerned, there was some progress in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. What do we know about that?
MAKSAD: Yeah. That is very interesting. Diplomacy seems to be, you know, taking its course. Again, here, we see a divergence between the United States and the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu. Netanyahu very much favors an attack to undermine Iran's nuclear program. Their position is no enrichment and the dismantlement of the entire program - Libya style, as the Israeli prime minister likes to say. Others in the region, including these Gulf States that the president visited, very much want to see diplomacy and not conflict. They are, after all, invested in trillions of dollars of national economic visions and value stability. So the president, very much his instincts in line here, again, with the Arab partners and not Israel, wanting to end wars and also sharing that interest in stability. The chances of a deal have gone up.
I think in terms of time frame, everybody's focused on snapback sanctions, which are due to take place end of June, early July. The president keeps repeating that the time for a deal is quite short because of that. We've got that runway up until June, July time frame. My sense is that the Iranians, too, haven't been so weakened by the wars not only in Lebanon with the defeat of Hezbollah there - their proxy - but the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria - their main ally and conduit to Hezbollah - that they, too, understand that they're weak and are in search of a deal. So I think it seems that at least an interim mini deal might be in play - one that would allow diplomacy to continue past that July time frame.
SIMON: President Trump also met with Syria's new interim president, Sharaa. Of course, until December, there was a $10 million U.S. bounty for his capture. He was considered a terrorist. Trump also said that he wants to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria. This is a major policy shift, isn't it?
MAKSAD: And what a turnaround, from a hardened jihadist, who is a designated U.S. terrorist group, to shaking the hand of the American president. Yes, that was - we were talking about Trump's desire for big headlines and big stories - certainly one with Syria there. Listen, the Arabs - Saudi, in particular - have a view. Syria is kind of the row house in the middle of the block. If it's on fire and in trouble, the whole neighborhood's in trouble. It impacts not only just Israel to the south, but very fragile Lebanon. It hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Also Jordan, Turkey - a major NATO ally of the U.S. to the north. And so everybody has an interest in getting Syria right and preventing it from going sideways. President Trump here basically just waving off concerns here in Washington, including in his own administration about kind of the jihadi nature and background of these rebel forces that have taken power in Damascus. Now, that said, they have - these jihadists have done every effort they can to moderate, very quickly become pragmatic. They understand they can't rebuild their country and economy and continue to rule without the lifting of those sanctions. So big surprise, but the jury's out as to whether Syria will actually pan out or not.
SIMON: What's the view about the U.S. from these states that he just visited, do you think? And we obviously have to raise the question of the concerns of China.
MAKSAD: China is a big issue in the background here. When it comes to that part of the world, we tend to think of the Middle East in terms of, you know, squarely geopolitics, conflicts, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, so on, so forth. But the geoeconomics of things is very important - those trillions of dollars. Because in the competition between the U.S. and China, AI, strategic tech, cloud computing - those are the industries of the future, where things are being fought. And those are very capital-intensive and energy-intensive industries. If there's anything that that part of the world has - is a lot of money to invest in that industry of the future, but also cheap energy. And so we see a lot of those deals are, in fact, in AI and strategic tech. And I think we can see, perhaps, that the Arabian Gulf will emerge as a third pillar of competition here in those industries - one that is very much now in the U.S. corner, rather than continuing to hedge, as they have been, you know, investing partly in China, partly in the U.S. So that's a big win for the U.S. right there.
SIMON: Yeah. I have to point out, when he campaigned against Hillary Clinton in 2016, he accused the Clinton Foundation of taking money from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Is this forgive and forget now?
MAKSAD: (Laughter) That's politics in the U.S. at its best, isn't it, Scott? I think from the perspective of these states, whoever the president of the United States is, they will come bearing gifts, just given how important the relationship is for them. So whether it's Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama or Trump, they're going to try to cultivate the U.S. president. It's on the U.S. - our laws and regulations - to make sure that we keep that interrelation to a minimum.
SIMON: Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group. Thanks for much for being with us.
MAKSAD: Pleasure to be with you, Scott.
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