While U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner struggled last week to negotiate a debt ceiling deal that recalcitrant Tea Party conservatives would swallow, the Columbus Dispatch ran this interesting item: Payback may be coming for congressman's 'disloyalty'. The Congressman in question is Jim Jordan of Urbana, Ohio, and he's among those who have made Boehner's life manic, if not miserable - ultra-conservatives with little stomach for compromise on the debt, spending cuts, taxes or anything else. The article suggested Boehner may be plotting with Ohio statehouse Republicans to punish Jordan for snubbing the Speaker's leadership… by eliminating his congressional district.
Ohio Public Radio's Karen Kasler, hosting WCPN's call-in show, asked Ohio State Senator Tom Niehaus about the claim.
Kasler: "Is there any truth to that? Have you discussed that at all with anyone? Has the speaker made that clear to you or anyone else who is going to be in a position to make a decision?
Niehaus: Well I can tell you I read with amusement the article because it referenced, I think, legislative leaders involved in the process. And I happened to be in the room with them and none of us had had any conversations about it. So we're not sure who the source was talking about."
Niehaus was one of several guests on the hour-long program focused on redistricting - a complicated process that today is done with computer programs capable of crunching reams of political demographic data to draw district boundaries that give one or the other party maximum advantage. Niehaus is President of the Ohio Senate, which, together with the house, presides over the drawing of the state's Congressional districts. He downplays the inherently partisan nature of drawing district lines, saying his overarching interest is fairness.
Niehaus: "Whatever lines are drawn and whoever is affected, someone's not going to be happy with the process, and that just seems to be the history of redistricting. So our focus is on making sure that it's fair, that it does represent the interests of Ohio voters and residents, and certainly that it's constitutional and meets the requirements of the voting rights act."
That doesn't exactly square with Bill Hershey's understanding of the process. Hershey is a long-time political reporter for the Dayton Daily News.
Hershey: "I think people drawing the districts are going to use the most sophisticated software they can to get the best districts they can get for their political interests. I think fairness is in the eye of the beholder, and I think what seems fair to Senator Niehaus will not seem fair to Senator Cafaro, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, or other democrats in Ohio who are really far out of power right now."
Keesha Gaskins, Senior Counsel, Brennan Center for Justice, New York University, agrees with Hershey - up to a point.
Gaskin: "I think they are going to maximize their power, but at the end of the day they are controlled by legal contraints and the Voting Rights and other issues that will limit their ability to simply draw lines in such a way as to simply say Republicans are in a win-all position."
But while they may not be able to win all, they can certainly win a lot, says Mark Salling, Director of the Northern Ohio Data and Information Service at Cleveland State University. Most of the demographic information used in drawing new district maps comes from his office. He says after the LAST census, Republicans in control in Columbus handily set the stage to dominate in Congressional races over the entire decade, even amid GOP scandals and a Democratic surge in the state.
Salling: "In 2006 the vote for members of Congress - there were 18 seats open - less than half of the votes were for Republicans in that election, and yet they won 61 percent - 11 of the 18 seats. That is the impact of drawing the boundaries the way you want them."
While Senate President Niehaus denies any collusion to target Congressman Jordan, he says it likely will be one Democrat and one Republican losing a seat in the next election. Conventional wisdom has it that the area that is democratic Congressman Dennis Kucinich's 10th district will be carved up and combined with others in a way that would preclude him from winning in any new district. As for who will be the second casualty, at this stage it's anybody's guess.
