Tax revenues from auto sales in Ohio were way up in April, but income tax collections were down, in a month when they’re usually strong. That's according to preliminary numbers from the state budget director, who said tax collections are still in the black. But those categories are important to watch as the budget process continues.
Auto sales collections hit a record high of $216.5 million last month, which was $27.2 million or 14.4% over estimates. Ohio Office of Budget and Management Director Kim Murnieks said the next few months will tell for sure, but these sales could reflect people buying vehicles then to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
“There is some information that people purchase vehicles in late March going into April to get ahead of possible cost increases due to tariffs," Murnieks said. "We are continuing to look at the data, and it could be that that overage that we saw in April was in effect borrowing auto sales taxes from next fiscal year or future months, if people who maybe had planned to make a vehicle purchase this summer or this fall, instead decided to make that purchase in March or April."
Income tax collections were down 8.5%, though that month is usually strong because of the annual tax deadline on April 15.
"Personal income tax did miss the estimate for the month of April by about $102 million," Murnieks said. "However, if you look back at our prior monthly reports, you'll see that during February and March, the number of refunds that were issued and the average refund amount had actually decreased. So there is always some variation depending on human behavior, when they file their tax returns, when those refunds are actually paid out."
But Murnieks noted income tax collections are 3.2% above forecasts year-to-date. She said her office will be watching for a trend in income tax collections as they prepare estimates for lawmakers finalizing the budget in June. If those estimates change significantly from the forecasts that were used to create the initial budget proposal at the beginning of the year, that could mean big changes will be needed.
Year to date, total tax receipts are $549 million more than what was estimated, which is 2.4% over forecasts. Sales tax collections not including auto sales were up 5.1% over estimates. And there were mixed results for the state's "sin taxes": cigarette and tobacco tax collections were up 2.3%, but revenues from alcohol were down .2% and liquor tax revenue was down 4.6%.
