MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
To Ukraine now. Ukraine has successfully tested ballistic missiles made in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv that the test was successful, but did not offer specifics. Ukraine has been dependent on Western countries for long-range ballistic missiles in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, so the question here is whether producing these missiles in Ukraine could make a difference in the war. To talk more about this, we've called Hanna Shelest. She is a nonresident senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis and is based in Odessa. Welcome.
HANNA SHELEST: Good morning.
MARTIN: So let me remind people that ballistic missiles are missiles that are long range. They travel high in the atmosphere, and they're important because it's difficult for air defense to intercept them. As I said, President Zelenskyy didn't offer many details about what Ukraine has now. Do we know anything more?
SHELEST: We know that the development's been happening the last 18 months, and most probably, it is based on the old project started more than 15 years ago in Ukraine. So that is the first gossips that we have. And most probably, that would be of the short range, compared to what theoretical ballistic missiles can have, because the range for the ballistic missile is from 200 kilometers up to 6,000 kilometers. In our case, we heard that they're developing three modifications, and most probably, that would be something similar to the American ATACMS.
MARTIN: So is there a timeline for putting these into production?
SHELEST: If the testing is successful, I can assume that Ukrainian military conflicts would be doing it as quick as possible because we are really dependent currently on the - first of all, the U.S. missiles, and that limits our operations, when the Russians have quite unlimited resources, plus the North Korean ballistic missiles. And considering that the last year, a lot of the bureaucratic restrictions being eased in Ukraine for the military industry, we can assume that from six months, and at least the first examples - samples - already will be on the battlefield.
MARTIN: So let me ask you two questions about what you just told us. Once production is up and running, OK, how might it compare to Russia's ballistic missile production capabilities? You're saying that they have unlimited, you know, capability, that - nobody has really unlimited capability, but how - can you find a way to compare the two? What might be possible for Ukraine?
SHELEST: No. That would be impossible now to compare because Russia's been producing them for decades, and they have the storage of some of them. Plus, they have the whole operational production cycle. And also, they have contracts with North Korea, and their ballistic missiles are arriving. So when you hear Iskander targeted something in Ukraine, that is exactly when we're speaking about ballistic missiles.
MARTIN: Yeah.
SHELEST: However, that is the game changer because, first of all, in this case, Ukraine would not need to receive permission. They are usually very precise, so you don't need hundreds of them if you have the particular target. And they are very important when you can make a combined attack of the cruise and ballistic missiles because when two different types of the missiles are coming, it's very complicated for the air defense. And Ukraine is already developing the cruise missiles now, and just two days ago, we used the first drone missile. That is quite a breakthrough for the military industry.
MARTIN: So I understand that you're saying that one of the advantages for Ukraine here is that they wouldn't have to abide by the restrictions that Western countries have placed on their use of these weapons. But will Ukraine still need missiles provided by other countries if it can now make its own?
SHELEST: Yes, surely, because you can produce two, three missiles per month. It's not that you are producing hundreds immediately. And for the one nice strike, you need at least two, three of these missiles. So if we would like to have not just surviving - like, you know, it's not the needle that allows you just to live a little bit longer. You need to get healthy, so the same is with this missile. To really target, for example, the Russian airfields from where the jets that is striking Ukraine are starting, we need a certain number of the ammunition. Plus, that is, we're just starting producing, and that makes it - like, it also will need some time of testing; while the U.S. has enough of the ATACMS that we already can use against these military targets.
MARTIN: But as you're telling us, this is - it could be a game changer. That is Hanna Shelest. She's the director of security programs at the Foreign Policy Council Ukraine Prism, and, as we said, she's based in Odesa. Hanna Shelest, thanks so much for sharing this expertise with us.
SHELEST: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
