AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The presidential tickets are set. It's Harris-Walz versus Trump-Vance, and the sprint is on. The race is evolving quickly. And to take a measure of where things stand, we have a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out today, and it shows Vice President Harris gaining a slightly, nationally (ph) on former President Trump. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to walk us through the latest numbers and what Harris' running mate might mean for the race. Hey, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, so it seems like some of the Harris momentum that people have been talking about is sort of reflected in these numbers, right? Is her choice of Tim Walz going to further push that momentum, you think?
MONTANARO: Well, it could, and Democrats certainly hope so. I mean, he's clearly a pick aimed at the blue wall - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - where the race is now tied. And if Harris holds those states, she likely wins the presidency. Walz is also a messaging pick. In fact, you know, he coined the attack on former President Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, as quote-unquote, "weird" that everyone on the Democratic side seems to be parroting nowadays. Here he was on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."
(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "MORNING JOE")
TIM WALZ: I think this is going back to the bread and butter, getting away from this division. We do not like what has happened where we can't even go to Thanksgiving dinner with our uncle because you end up in some weird fight that is unnecessary.
JOE SCARBOROUGH: (Laughter).
WALZ: And I think bringing back people together - well, it's true. These guys are just...
SCARBOROUGH: It is.
WALZ: ...Weird.
MONTANARO: You can hear him there say that these guys are just weird, and the host, Joe Scarborough, laughing over him toward the end. Democrats hope that Walz's, you know, folksiness - like you could hear in that - can appeal to those white, middle-of-the-road voters in the upper Midwest and win the argument on which party and its policies are more normal.
CHANG: Yeah, but Walz also has a progressive record as governor. So is that something that could hurt the Harris-Walz ticket when they're trying to appeal to more moderate voters?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, Republicans are definitely going to take aim at his policies and probably home in on his time as governor of Minnesota, especially after George Floyd's murder at the hands of a police officer. Republicans have tried to use the chaotic scenes after Floyd's killing as examples of Democratic governance - try to win over, you know, white, suburban voters nervous about crime.
It's funny, though. There's, quote-unquote, "moderate in policy," and then there's moderate in tone. And a lot of what's turned off voters, we hear quite often, is less about policy and more about tone. And certainly, Walz is someone who tries to take the temperature down. He defends progressive policies - no doubt about it - and goes on the attack. But he does it with this kind of happy-go-lucky style, which Vice President Harris clearly liked.
And he's pretty careful to try and not alienate rural voters who Democrats have struggled with. He's pretty confident that he strikes the right balance, given he grew up in rural Nebraska and won in a Republican-leaning congressional district. He's also there to kind of be something of a validator of Harris, someone of the Midwest who trusts Harris and who can show that she's not the, quote, "California liberal" that Republicans want to make her out to be.
CHANG: This survey, Domenico - it just came out, but it was conducted over the weekend before Harris named Walz. But what changes did this poll find?
MONTANARO: Yeah, we've seen more momentum in Harris' favor. She now leads Trump 51-48. That's up four points from last month. Importantly, she retains that lead even when we gave people more choices than just the two major party candidates.
Her rise is really fueled here by Black voters and women, especially white women with college degrees and those who say that they're independents. Those groups are all about 20 points higher now in their support for Harris than they were just a couple weeks ago. And younger voters, Black voters and Latino voters all now say that they're far more enthusiastic about voting. And, you know, for a Democratic candidate, that's huge.
With voters under 45 though, I have to point out, Harris is not doing as well as she would probably like to at this point, and we'll see if she makes progress there or not.
CHANG: Does our poll suggest anything about what people might think about Harris' choice?
MONTANARO: Well, there's going to be a big race to define him in this ticket because 71% of Americans say that they don't have an opinion of Tim Walz at this point. His counterpart, JD Vance, though, seems to be violating the first rule of being a VP, which is do no harm. Our poll found 55% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him, which is not great for him. So these next two weeks are going to be really critical for this Democratic ticket.
CHANG: That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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