LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate within the next day.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
The pair will then embark on a whirlwind campaign tour that kicks off tomorrow. The new duo could further shake up the electoral map as well.
FADEL: NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro has been looking at where the race stands, and he joins me now. Good morning.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Good morning.
FADEL: OK, so what do we know about who's at the top of the list for Harris' vice presidential nominee?
MONTANARO: Well, the three names that have gotten the most attention are Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Others have been vetted, but Harris is really - seems close to making the pick here. And this is really one of the most important decisions a presidential candidate makes. And it's been a really compressed timeline for Harris to do this.
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: It's been such a sped-up process given that Biden dropped out only two weeks ago, and the Democrats' convention is later this month. And picking a running mate usually takes months. We saw how long it took former President Trump to make the choice. And Harris is having to do it, as I said, in just a couple of weeks here.
FADEL: Yeah, and we learned last week that once Harris makes the decision, she and her running mate will campaign in a slew of states back to back. They'll go to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. How important are these places to the race at this point?
MONTANARO: I mean, they happen to be the seven states that both campaigns are focused on and spending all of their money in.
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: And to put it bluntly, those seven states are the whole ballgame. This tour is like the beginning of the finals in the Olympics. You know, everything to this point has been preliminary. This tour really signals the beginning of the sprint to the finish with this being the actual Democratic ticket, Harris and whomever she winds up picking.
FADEL: So you have a new analysis out this morning of the electoral map. When you look at these seven states, does either Trump or Harris have a clear advantage at this point? And how has the landscape changed since President Biden dropped out and Harris has gotten in?
MONTANARO: Well, the vice president has really made up significant ground in the swing states, about two to four points on average when I was looking at the polls. And it's happened across the board. It's why the Trump campaign has now gone on the air in places like North Carolina and are outspending Harris in five of those seven states that we talked about since she got in. You know, that's all in an effort to blunt her momentum. They've seen the numbers move just like we have. And looking at the so-called blue wall states - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania - Trump's lead there has completely evaporated. At this point, the blue wall is genuinely a toss-up. And that's why the Harris campaign says it is their big focus right now, because if Harris can win in each of those three, then she likely wins the presidency. And that really is her easiest path.
FADEL: And what about the rest of those seven states, the four Sunbelt states?
MONTANARO: Well, Harris has sliced into Trump's leads there basically in half to bring the margins in those places just within a couple of points. They do still lean ever so slightly in Trump's direction, though. Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic there, they say. That's because these are very diverse states. Harris has been doing better than Biden with younger and non-white voters. Democrats also feel good about their organizing efforts in these states and have seen a boom in volunteers - 15,000 new volunteers in Georgia, 7,000 in North Carolina. In Nevada, Democrats have a track record also of pulling out wins when they've been down in the polls previously.
A place like Arizona, someone like Senator Mark Kelly could conceivably help. But given Democrats are so close to what they need to hold in the blue wall and Arizona has fewer electoral votes than Pennsylvania, it's why someone like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro has gotten so much attention for VP. Harris needs just a small boost there to get over the top, and a governor with a 60% approval rating probably doesn't hurt.
FADEL: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You're welcome.
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MARTÍNEZ: A top U.S. general arrives in Israel today in the midst of frantic efforts to prevent a wider war in the Middle East. And later this morning, President Biden is due to speak to the king of Jordan.
FADEL: Jordan has ties to both Iran and the U.S. and sent its foreign minister on a rare visit to Tehran on Sunday. Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah are expected to launch a major attack on Israel in retaliation for two assassinations of senior leaders of militant groups last week in the hearts of Beirut and Tehran. That will likely trigger a blistering response, in turn, from Israel. The U.S. embassy has warned citizens to either leave Lebanon immediately or be prepared to shelter in place.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Jane Arraf is in Lebanon, joins us from Beirut. Jane, Lebanon has gone through wars and other disasters. Tell us what's happening. I mean, is there a sense of panic there?
JANE ARRAF, BYLINE: Yeah, there's definitely apprehension but no panic, really. The health ministry says it has an emergency plan. There aren't really any bunkers here, so people will basically have to fend for themselves. And, of course, some Lebanese, including American and other citizens, are heeding their embassy's advice to leave. I was at the Beirut airport yesterday after European carriers canceled their flights in and out.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Please, all passengers - beginning boarding to Gate No. 17.
ARRAF: It was relatively crowded but calm. The Lebanese flag carrier is still flying to Europe and across the region. But with European carriers canceling their flights due to insurance issues, tickets are hard to find. I spoke with Mohammad Dawli (ph), a Lebanese Ukrainian living in the U.K. He was at the Middle East Airlines office trying to rebook a ticket to get back to work after his connecting flight was canceled.
MOHAMMAD DAWLI: I was on vacation. I was supposed to go. They changed the date, they changed the time, so I'll miss the next flight. There's no places. They said three days.
ARRAF: Another passenger, Christian missionary Winnie Oh (ph) from South Korea, was leaving with his family for Egypt to wait things out after warnings that war could be imminent.
WINNIE OH: Actually, our embassy, they're warning us to go out this country. So, you know, we are worried about that.
ARRAF: Lebanon is a small country. But because of successive wars and economic crisis, more Lebanese actually live abroad than at home. In Lebanon, there are almost 90,000 U.S. passport holders. And the consistent message from the U.S. and other embassies is, don't count on us to evacuate you.
MARTÍNEZ: Wow, so the U.S. government says it may not be able to get all U.S. citizens out. Are there any other groups, Jane, trying to make that happen?
ARRAF: There are. I spoke to Bryan Stern, a former Navy SEAL who's the founder of the Grey Bull Rescue Foundation, a U.S. nonprofit organization. He says his previous outfit, Project Dynamo, rescued Americans from Israel after Hamas attacked last October, chartering a plane to fly them home when commercial flights were canceled.
BRYAN STERN: Usually what happens is the airspace closes and everything goes bananas right around then. Well, you've seen that time and time again.
ARRAF: He says they've evacuated 7,000 Americans around the world, including by air, from Afghanistan, Sudan and Haiti. He says this time his outfit is also lining up a sea route.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. Now, and the head of U.S. Central Command is due to arrive in Israel today. What's his role going to be?
ARRAF: General Michael Kurilla is due to help coordinate defenses across the region if an Iranian attack is launched. Last time Iran launched rockets and drones - hundreds of them at Israel in April - U.S. war planes and missile batteries played a crucial role in shooting down those projectiles. That operation also included Britain, France and Jordan.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, that's NPR's Jane Arraf in Jordan. Jane, thank you.
ARRAF: Thank you.
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MARTÍNEZ: Some days at the Summer Olympics, there is amazing sport. Some days athletes make history. Yesterday was a day for both.
FADEL: In Paris, American Noah Lyles won gold in the 100-meter sprint by 0.005 of a second. Also, U.S. swimmers grabbed two gold medals and shattered two world records in the pool.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Brian Mann is in Paris. Brian, Noah Lyles now Olympic champion. But he needed to make up some ground late and fast.
BRIAN MANN, BYLINE: Yeah, Lyles was slow off the blocks, A, and he trailed everybody for almost half the race in this 100-meter final. Then he poured on that amazing speed. He bumped out his chest and by just the narrowest fraction got ahead of Jamaica's Kishane Thompson. Here's Lyles speaking after the race.
NOAH LYLES: Everybody in the field, to be honest, came out knowing that they could win this race. And, you know, that's the mindset that we have to have, you know? Iron sharpens iron, of course.
MANN: Noah Lyles now the fastest man on Earth, the first time in 20 years an American man has won this Olympic race.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And Lyles now tries for gold in the 200 meters next. Meanwhile, U.S. swimmers, they were wrapping up competition in the pool. And after a very slow start in Paris, they finished with a bang. What happened to them?
MANN: Well, they showed amazing resilience. Not only did they bounce back, they bounced back big, winning two more gold medals last night. But here's the big thing - they shattered two world records. The first was Bobby Finke. He swam the 1,500 meter. That's almost a mile. He was so fast right from the start, A, it was clear he would win gold. And the question really was, would he be fast enough for the world record? Here, he is talking about pushing for that mark.
BOBBY FINKE: Towards the end of it, it was really starting to hurt a lot, especially that last, like, 400. But I knew going in it was going to hurt - did it with the world record, so I'm really proud about that.
MANN: So right after Bobby Finke's world record, the team of American women took to the water for the 4 x 100 medley relay race swimming against a really tough race - field of swimmers. But they won easily. They broke another world record. They were led by Torri Huske, who, A, is one of the new American stars who emerged this year. Huske won three gold and two silver medals in Paris.
MARTÍNEZ: Finke led while he got wet. The second he got wet, he was in the lead and he never gave it up. That was an amazing race.
MANN: That's right.
MARTÍNEZ: And the U.S. has pretty much always been a powerhouse in the pool, eight Olympic gold medals this year. But it's down from an average of about 10 or 11. Has something changed?
MANN: Well, the short answer is yes. Everyone's talking about it here, the athletes, the coaches. The rest of the world is just getting better and faster. The U.S. used to have this big rivalry with one team, the Australian swimmers, but now the Chinese are good. The Italians are good. There are huge French stars like Leon Marchand, Canadian stars like Summer McIntosh. Some races where the U.S. settled for silver or bronze, the American swimmers actually set personal best times. They were performing well. Other swimmers from other countries just did better. And one thing that I will say here is that a person who stood out was Katie Ledecky. She is now the most decorated U.S. woman athlete in Olympic history.
KATIE LEDECKY: I hope that I'll look back on it with the same amount of joy and happiness that I feel right now and that I feel every day in training and felt so much joy going out there and racing. And I think that's what I'm going to remember the most.
MANN: So Katie Ledecky a legend here in Paris.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Brian Mann in Paris. Thanks, Brian.
MANN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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